Do you recall the experience of flying in the 90s, before the advent of iPhones, iPads, MacBook Airs, Kindles, and in-flight wifi? Back then, we would often resort to a boredom-induced perusal of the ubiquitous SkyMall catalog - a grotesque assortment of unnecessary items that nonetheless sold in large numbers. However, these catalogs have now been largely disregarded, much like the airline’s inflight magazines.
Recently, I have been pondering the impact of State Changes - how they can reverberate throughout a company, its entire value chain, and the wider ecosystem. This could be a good moment to thoroughly examine all aspects of your business, anticipate any upcoming State Changes (whether directly in your path or in the broader ecosystem), and devise strategies to navigate these shifts effectively.
Read on to dig deep into the economic shift that is upon us due to AI gaining traction.
Warmly,
P ツ
Decode. Disrupt. Transform.
In the beginning, there was search.
In 1997, serial entrepreneur, and investor Bill Gross, launched the GoTo.com search engine out of his proto-startup incubator Idealab. Competing with then-heavyweights such as Lycos and Excite, Gross’ big idea had its moment at the TED conference the following February: Gross introduced paid advertisement next to search results, tied to a user’s search query, and sold through an auction bidding mechanism.
Two and a half years later, in October 2000, the up-and-coming search company from Mountain View, California, Google, launched a refined version of Gross’ innovation and called it “AdWords.”
The rest became history.
18 years later, OpenAI publicly launched the first version of GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer). Within four short years, we have moved through numerous iterations, with OpenAI launching ChatGPT in November 2022.
And this is where the world of search advertising starts spinning out of control.
And then there came AI…
Try a search for “best shoes to run a marathon in,” and Google welcomes you with sponsored listing after sponsored listing. As a matter of fact, on Google’s US site, every single link and placement above the fold (i.e., in the visible area of the screen) is an ad. Scroll down, and you will find a near-endless number of search engine-optimized listicles linking to affiliate marketing programs.
Execute the same query on ChatGPT. After a brief moment to “think,” the little typing cursor reveals a list of five popular options (spanning five brands), including the specific benefits of each model. ChatGPT closes its suggestions with a recommendation to try different shoes on and encourages you to visit a knowledgeable local running shop.
The latter interaction is so obviously better that it makes you question why you would ever consider asking Google Search anything ever again. It is the same feeling people had when they experienced Google Search for the first time in the late 90s/early 00s. And the rest became history.
And things become weird…
Consider that your average online store gets around half of its traffic from searches. Most media publications get (much to their chagrin) an equal amount of traffic from the same source. The discovery of new apps, websites, products, and services is driven by search engine traffic.
It is not hard to imagine that we will experience a mass migration of users’ questions away from Google Search (and its brethren) to AIs such as ChatGPT. It is entirely unclear how (at least in the beginning – longer term, we almost certainly are guaranteed the enshittification of AI) how this will play out – the most likely scenario is that oodles of online stores will become financially unsustainable. We will see a further acceleration of the concentration of purchases into players with strong, established brands.
The quirky new marathon shoes that received rave reviews from some early adopters and hardcore runners? ChatGPT might not think that they deserve mention in its response to your question… (via Pascal)
What We Are Reading
🙅 When Great Minds Don’t Think Alike How can business leaders harness the power of different kinds of thinkers? The article shares how and explains that doing so will increase creativity, ignite problem-solving, and lead to more cohesive workplaces. Jane ⇢ Read
🪤 The perfectionism trap Perfectionism “makes for a thin life, lived for what it isn’t rather than what it is"; so why are we so obsessed with it? Mafe ⇢ Read
🎨 Creativity in Conformity The best way to introduce a radical innovation might be via design that makes it feel comfortably familiar. Jeffrey ⇢ Read
💼 What’s Next at Work? Much Change, and Likely Some Pain for Employees An outlook on the future of work dominated by questions of upskilling and, at the same time, balancing job demands and compromises. Julian ⇢ Read
🙋 On Trying To Control The Future When we worry, we aim to control the future by anticipating and planning. But we must accept the unknown and embrace uncertainty. Pedro ⇢ Read
🦸♂️ People in the U.S. Think They Are Better Than They Actually Are. People in Asia Don’t People often have inflated self-assessments, perceiving themselves as better than they truly are—a cognitive bias known as positive illusions. However, cultural differences influence these illusions, with Western societies valuing self-promotion while other cultures prioritize social connections and interdependence. Pascal ⇢ Read
The Thin Wisps of Tomorrow
👬 Maybe don’t let AI run your life quite yet (via be radical Learning Partner Heather Sparks).
👷 ChatGPT agents in your browser.
🔬 And also don’t let it run (or ruin?) your scientific research.
💯 And just in case you were wondering how many LLMs are out there and how they fare – here is a leaderboard.
🍱 Another COVID-winner is out for the count: QR codes in restaurants.
💯 The games we are playing with places like Glassdoor.
🌡️ For some (admittedly rare) good news on the climate crisis: Emissions are (at least) not following the worst-case scenario anymore.
Internet Finds
Here are the scripts for every Seinfeld episode ever produced. Train your AI on it – endless hours of fun are (near) guaranteed. 📺
In Other Parts of the Radical Universe
🏴☠️ The Heretic: Poke Life | 🎧 Listen | 📺 Watch
🧨 Disrupt Disruption - The Podcast: We brought Christina Nesheva, CEO at Officinae Bio, back to talk about leadership. Listen now.
📕 Disrupt Disruption – The Book: Get your copy of our bestselling book and learn how to decode the future, disrupt your industry, and transform your business here.